Here are some of the ideas that seem to animate Rachel Bitecofer’s new website, the Cycle: What if we could expand political forecasting beyond polling averages? We'll help you live your best #DCLIFE every day. This year, she predicts that Biden will win with a relatively safe margin, the Democrats will win the Senate, and pick up seats in the House. The percent indicating undecided is already low—the complete opposite of the conditions everyone should have seen plainly heading into 2016.”. Sometimes the best way to show leadership is through contrary thinking. There was some error in state-level polling data four years ago, Bitecofer says, but the data were sending a “a pretty clear signal.”, “It was double and even triple the amount of undecided voters that we usually see,” she says. In addition, Trump and his surrogates are holding rallies in many other states once thought safe, from Florida to Pennsylvania to Texas! Rachel Bitecofer’s Version of HuffPost Is (Kind of) Here The renegade political scientist has launched a publication named the Cycle. )” Despite mainstream media tendency to normalize him, Bitecofer notes, “Trump is not, and has never been, capable of behaving as a normal candidate.”. accurately called the 2018 mid-term elections, profiled Bitecofer at the beginning of 2020, A Bigger Field Awaits Us: The Scottish Soccer Team That Fought the Great War, The White House Has Become a Militarized Island in Downtown DC. That’s a point in favor of a blue wave. EY & Citi On The Importance Of Resilience And Innovation, Impact 50: Investors Seeking Profit — And Pushing For Change. She parlayed that social-science fame into a senior adviser position with the Lincoln Project and a senior-fellow post at the Niskanen Center, a once-libertarian think tank that, like most everything else in Washington, is harder to categorize in the Trump years. Bitecofer concludes that the American electorate is so polarized that not even an epochal disaster like the Trump administration’s egregiously inept response to the coronavirus pandemic can change their minds. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 65% or higher chance of winning. Whether Trump and the Republicans will accept the results willingly is another matter altogether. Are These the Comments That Got Chad Dukes Fired From 106.7 the Fan? Join Dr. Rachel Bitecofer and special guests for an ELECTION NIGHT live session of The Election Whisperer, presented by Old Bull TV. It’s Absolutely Heartbreaking to Watch Washington Boarding Up for an Election. Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day. “You know, like, there’s a reason Joe Rogan’s got like 17 million followers or some shit like that these because he’s not boring as fuck, you know what I mean?”. The stability of the race cuts both ways. Trump had a chance to change the trajectory early on in the pandemic, but he wasted it, “Trump is not capable of rational, strategic thought (which is why he should not be in the presidency. Rachel Bitecofer’s radical new theory predicted the midterms spot-on. Dr. Rachel Bitecofer joins the Three Course Politics podcast to explain exactly what is 'Obamagate' and why it's all a lie. Cross posted from Blue Virginia This morning, former Christopher Newport University Professor, Niskanen Center Senior Fellow and elections analyst/modeler Rachel Bitecofer is … Learn More. Her decision to pivot to editing a website that she imagines as a for-profit enterprise but currently has no plan to make money off of—she welcomes your calls, business-model people—makes more sense after you talk with Bitecofer: she’s funny, profane, really smart, and your head will spin a little afterward. How did he do that? Trump is polling in the low 40s now. Her latest forecast, a structural model constructed with a new methodology and released 15 months later, likewise predicts a Joe Biden win, with a caveat that the pandemic has “introduced a tremendous amount of uncertainty” into what would otherwise be a cakewalk for the Democratic nominee: besides President Trump’s war on voting by mail, many college students won’t be voting from campus, and we still don’t know whether or how city-dwellers fleeing to the burbs might affect the election. But can he attract votes in other parts of the country, too? She sees the country becoming more blue in the November election. Biden is leading in a remarkably stable race that he has always led, and very little that has happened in the interim to change the dynamic. She blames hyperpartisanship: “Even if the pandemic was mismanaged, even if that mismanagement did cause Americans great death and despair, and even though what had been a strong ‘economic fundamentals’ for Donald Trump’s reelection campaign was inevitable, hyperpartisanship meant that it was unlikely these massive political stimuli would have much impact on the fundamentals of the race.”. Comparing polls then to polls today are eerily similar. “Polarization and hyperpartisanship has just changed so much,” Bitecofer says. This doesn’t surprise Bitecofer, who is skeptical of the existence of many truly undecided voters in the first place. Trump Is President Because White People’s Votes Count More in America, How a High School Journalist Bagged a Huge Scoop—About Her Superintendent, Politico Tells Employees They Should Plan to Work From Home at Least Through Next Summer, The Washington Post Ends Its Regional Homepage, Lee Enterprises Posts Ad Looking for Ashley Spinks’s Replacement, DC-Area Voter Turnout Is Approaching 2016 Levels—and It’s Still a While Until Polls Close, Washington Is Experiencing a Run on Weed Ahead of Election Night, Report: Dr. Birx Contradicts Trump on Covid, Presses White House to Step Up Efforts. Joe Biden has consistently led Donald Trump in the polls. Here is the OG 2020 forecast- from 7/1/19. Another point. The presence of a significant third party challenge that totaled 5-10% in some of the key swing states was perhaps the most significant factor in the unexpected outcome. Even after the history-making disaster of Trump’s pandemic response, the hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths, the cratering economy, rising unemployment, and the conservative political gamesmanship in response to the Democrats’ CARES Act, independent voters actually moved more towards Trump than Biden. Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. The live stream starts this Friday, October 16 at 3PM (ET). Covid-19 has displaced college students and even some work-from-home voters who have moved from their normal places of residence. The former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, is being taken more seriously after Iowa. Election Whisperer LIVE (Recorded 10/29) Join Dr. Rachel Bitecofer and special guests for a live session of The Election Whisperer, presented by Old Bull TV. Election forecaster and analyst Rachel Bitecofer joins Bill to discuss how hyper-polarization and extreme partisanship has changed electoral behavior. Entrepreneur, former CNN exec, bestselling author. Forecaster, election analyst, pollster, and all-around data girl, Dr. Bitecofer is one of the most accurate, and exciting, experts in today's political arena. Bitecofer is a former professor at Christopher Newport University whose profile rose after she accurately called the 2018 mid-term elections and became kind of a thing on Twitter. He actually lost the national popular vote. “That’s what I’m saying, right?” she exclaims. (The Guardian), An Unsettling New Theory: There Is No Swing Voter (Politico), Dr. Rachel Bitecofer’s July 2019 Election Update . Bitecofer has already released her 2020 model, and is alone among election forecasters in giving the Democrats—the 270 electoral votes required to claim the presidency without a single toss-up state flipping their way. Sign up with your email address to receive election and political news and updates from Dr. Rachel Bitecofer. Andrew Beaujon joined Washingtonian in late 2014. Read this, consider conditions today. Rachel Bitecofer was eerily prescient in her 2018 predictions by focusing on the signal that voter behavior and the polls were sending. Here’s how this will likely play out on Election Day (MarketWatch), Rachel Bitecofer on Negative Partisanship (Podcast), Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections, Rachel Bitecofer: The Hottest Hand in Political Handicapping (Podcast), Why a Biden Victory Hinges on Picking the Right Running Mate (The New York Times), Election 2020 with Dr. Rachel Bitecofer (Podcast), Dr. Rachel Bitecofer’s March 2020 Election Update , There's Always A Silver Lining To Every Sh*t Show. You may opt-out by. Get the latest from our editors today. She wants it to be “edgier, but more modernized, more assessable, too.” She plans videos, podcasts, “zods”—her word for Zoom podcasts—and, starting Friday, live versions of her The Election Whisperer video series. When a cycle denies them compelling horserace narratives, the media starts looking for them.”. Biden won many of the states without any campaign spending, which is unprecedented. Or, as Bitecofer, laid up with a kidney infection at her home in Newport News, put it in a phone interview late last week during which her two dogs, Hamilton and Ginsburg, wrestled and yelped nearby, what if politics coverage wasn’t “boring as fuck”? Join Dr. Rachel Bitecofer and special guests for a live session of The Election Whisperer, presented by Old Bull TV. Will There Even Be a Regular Inauguration Ceremony on January 20? Forget your nervousness about who will win the presidency next month: Bitecofer announced in July 2019 that, due in large part to a phenomenon called negative partisanship—briefly, the idea that people are especially motivated by the hatred and fear they feel toward an opposite party—the cake was already baked, and that a Democrat would win the presidency.

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